浅谈小概率事件原理及其应用

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翻新时间：2013-12-18

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浅谈小概率事件原理及其应用

摘要

小概率事件原理是概率论与数理统计中的1个简单、基本而颇有实用意义的原理，在我们的日常生活中有着很广泛的应用。

首先我们对小概率事件（又称极值事件）做1个粗略的描述：小概率事件，是指发生的可能性（或概率）较小的事件。1般认为不大可能发生的事件，但生活中还是往往有发生的。小概率事件1旦发生可能对生活、某些行业尤其是保险与金融业（或其公司）产生巨大的（有时是毁灭性的）冲击。

小概率事件原理在我们日常生活和工作中有着很广泛的应用。本文将通过对小概率原理及其推断方法的分析、论证，结合在1些领域中的应用实例，证明小概率事件原理的应用价值。

关键词：概率论；小概率事件；应用价值

Abstract

Minor probability event theory is a basic simple and practical theory in Probability and Statistics. It is widely applied in our daily life.

Firstly, we have a rough description of minor probability event: An event which would happen with minor probability or which is unlikely to happen .An event which is unlikely to happen but actually usually happen in our daily life. Although the events with minor probability are unlikely to happen, their occasional happening has significant or sometimes deadly influence on our life and all social circles, especially on insurance and finance or their companies.

The theory of minor probability event has profound significance in our daily life and work. In this thesis, we demonstrate the practical value of the minor probability event theory through its analysis and inferring method combining the applied events in some fields.

Keywords: probability; minor probability event; practical value