中国宏观经济模型及模拟预测

摘要

本文在阐述宏观经济评价的理论依据以及在总结宏观经济评价方法的基础上，借鉴计量经济模型法，围绕中国宏观经济分析和预测中的模型、方法等方面，做了1些研究工作，主要内容如下：

第1章，前言，这1部分主要是对经济模型应用及中国近年来经济运行的综述；

第2章，联立方程模型，这1部分主要是对联立方程模型及其拟合、情景分析的介绍；

第3章，建立1个简单的中国宏观经济联立方程模型，这1部分在借鉴了新凯恩斯主义经济理论和其它经济理论的基础上，结合我国当前经济体制过渡期的某些特点建立了1个由3个方程构成的联立方程模型，得出了我国的总消费与总投资比例；再进1步研究消费与投资，建立6个方程。对03年、04年进行模拟分析，再对07年经济进行预测；

第4章，根据前几个部分所得出的结果给出政策建议。由于我国的货币政策对实体经济的有效性较弱，因此应继续努力推进货币政策运行机制改革，我国的财政政策在扩大国内需求方面在相当长的时间内还应该继续实施。

关键词:宏观经济政策；联立方程模型；模拟分析

Abstract

In this paper, we present the evaluation of macroeconomic theory and conclude macroeconomic evaluation method on the basis of from the econometric model, centering on Chinas macroeconomic analysis and forecasting models, methods, etc. We have done some research work, as follows:

The first chapter, the preamble, we summarize the economic model and the Chinese economy in recent years;

Chapter II, simultaneous equations models, we introduce the couplet model fitting, Scenario Analysis presentation;

Chapter III, we create a simple macro-economic model of simultaneous equations. This part on the basis of the new Keynesian economic theory and other economic theory and connecting to some characteristics of Chinas current economic structure of the transition period, we establish three equations form of simultaneous equations model, and come to our total consumption and total investment ratio; further studying consumption and investment, the establishment of six equation. We simulate and analyze the economic in 2003 and in 2004, then predict it in 2007;

Chapter IV, according to the conclusions of several former parts, I give some policy recommendations. Since Chinas monetary policy to the real economy weaker effectiveness, it should continue to make efforts to promote the operating mechanism of monetary policy reform; and it should continue to actualize Chinas financial policy to expand domestic demand in a fairly long period of time.

Keywords: macroeconomic policy; simultaneous equations models; simulation