外文报告：UOB-Asian Markets-130607

Key Event/Data Ahead
A urry o data releases are scheduled or today.
In Asian session, South Korea’s nal 1Q GDP report
came out at 7am, largely in line with the preliminary
estimates. Malaysia exports or Apr (12:01pm SGT) is
seen rising a marginal 0.5%y/y, improving rom the -
2.9%y/y in March. Taiwan’s external trade report or
May (4pm SGT) expected to see exports declining -
0.8%y/y vs. -1.9% in Apr. Later, the market will ocus
on US nonarm payroll report or May (830pm SGT),
which is expected to see new jobs created at 165k,
same as or the previous month, with jobless rate held
unchanged at 7.5%.
Key event to watch today is China’s President Xi Jin-
ping’s 2-day visit to the US, and will meet with President
Obama or the rst time since taking oce as China’s
top leader in March. The summit is earlier than expect-
ed, as the two leaders were not expected to gather
until the G20 meeting in Russia in Sep. FX market will
be sensitive to any potential move to widen the RMB
trading band during this period. Into the weekend, on
Sat, China will release its May external trade report,
with exports expected to slow sharply to 6.5%y/y rom
14.7% in May, as China government tightens scru-
tiny und ows tied to exports and imports. On Sun,
China’s monthly data releases or May continue with
CPI at 930am (expected at 2.5%y/y; prev 2.4%). Then
rom 130pm, industrial production (exp 9.4%y/y; prev
9.3%), xed assets investment (exp 20.5% YTD; prev
20.6%), and retail sales (12.9%y/y; prev 12.8%).
Forex
Uncertainty over Fed’s “tapering” o its QE pro-
gram continued to unsettle market sentiment, with
the USD alling 2.4% so ar this week ater its 2% gain
in May. The US nonarm payroll report this evening
will be especially crucial or setting the tone o Fed’s
policy trend ahead, given the disappointing ADP pri-
vate payroll on Wed and the muted US weekly jobless
claims yesterday evening. In Asian session on Thur,
TWD eased marginally to close at 29.915/USD on Thur,
reversing rom 3-week high intraday, and weakened
rom 29.80 on Wed. PHP ell 0.4% to 42.155/USD, snap-
ping 5-day rally that was longest winning streak since
11 Jan. MYR ended slightly rmer against the US dol-
lar in late trading today on mild buying interest as the
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Foreign Exchange Rates (as o 06 June 2013)
FX Asian Close Asian High Asian Low NY High NY Low
SGD 1.2479 1.2517 1.2473 1.2497 1.2441
MYR 3.0815 3.0935 3.0800 - -
IDR - - - - -
THB 30.60 29.64 30.53 - -
PHP 42.15 42.21 42.06 - -
TWD 29.799 29.840 29.754 - -
KRW 1118.76 1121.30 1115.93 - -
HKD 7.7616 7.7616 7.7603 - -
CNY 6.1359 6.1381 6.1275 - -
UOB’s Estimation o SGD NEER (as o 07 June 2013)
Assuming 2.0% on each side o the pivot point
Lower-End ......................................................................................... 1.2656
Upper-End ........................................................................................ 1.2160
Mid-Point .......................................................................................... 1.2403
Stock Indices (as o 06 June 2013) Closing % chg ytd % chg
FTSE Straits Times Index 3193.51 -1.54 +0.83
FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index 1769.60 -0.27 +4.78
Jakarta SE Composite Index - - -
Thailand SET Index 1490.21 -2.13 +7.06
Philippines SE PSEi Index 6609.01 +0.78 +13.70
Taiwan SE Weighted Index 8096.14 -1.05 +5.15
Korea SE KOSPI Index - - -
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 21838.43 -1.05 -3.61
Shanghai SE Composite Index 2242.11 -1.12 -1.19
India Sensex 30 Index 19519.49 -0.25 +0.48
Friday, 07 June 2013
Asian Markets
UOB Economic-Treasury Research
Singapore Company Reg No. 193500026Z
Market Holiday Date Event
CN 10-12 Jun Dragon Boat Day
TW 12 Jun Dragon Boat Day
HK 12 Jun Tuen Ng Festival
Interest Rates Current Next CB Meet UOB’s Forecast
SGD 3-Mth SIBOR 0.37% - -
MYR O/N Policy Rate 3.00% 11 Jul 3.00%
IDR O/N Rate 5.75% 13 Jun 5.75%
THB 1-Day Repo 2.50% 10 Jul 2.50%
PHP O/N Reverse Repo 3.50% 13 Jun 3.50%
TWD Discount Rate 1.88% 20 Jun 1.88%
KRW Base Rate 2.50% 13 Jun 2.50%
HKD Base Rate 0.50% - 0.50%
CNY 1-Yr Wking Capital 6.00% - 6.00%