外文报告：Deutsche Bank-TheWeekinEnergy-121003

Deutsche Bank
Markets Research
Europe
United Kingdom
Oil & Gas


Periodical
European Oils
Weekly

Date
3 October 2012

The Week in Energy

Oil and Gas this week

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced
from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject
companies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus,
investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND
ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.

Lucas Herrmann, ACA
Research Analyst
(+44) 20 754-73636
lucas.herrmann@http://wendang.chazidian.com

Mark Bloomfield, ACA
Research Analyst
(+44) 20 754-57905
mark.bloomfield@http://wendang.chazidian.com

Sebastian Yoshida
Research Analyst
(+44) 20 754-56489
sebastian.yoshida@http://wendang.chazidian.com

Brent 5-Year forward Curve
90
95
100
105
110
115
Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18
$/bbl
Global oil supply/demand forecast
2013 vs. 2012
(Mln bbl/day)
Demand
Growth
Non-OPEC
Supply
Growth
OPEC
NGLs
Call on
OPEC
Crude
US DOE/ EIA 1.00 1.24 0.19 nf 3.2% 3.1%
Int'l Ener gy Agency 0.81 0.72 0.28 -0.19 3.3% 3.6%
OPEC Secr etariat 0.81 0.94 0.24 nf 3.3% 3.2%
Deutsche Bank 0.85 0.67 0.28 -0.10 2.9% 3.2%
Average 0.87 0.89 0.25 -0.15 3.2% 3.3%
Big Three Agency Avg 0.87 0.97 0.24 -0.19 3.3% 3.3%
World GDP
Growth
2012 2013
DB Price Deck
W TI Br e n t HHu b
$ /bbl $/ bbl mm bt u
2 0 09 6 1 .7 7 61 .6 5 4 .0 4
2 0 10 7 9 .4 6 79 .4 8 4 .3 9
2 0 11 9 5 .1 7 1 1 1. 05 4 .0 0
2 0 12 E 9 7 .1 3 1 1 3. 17 2 .6 8
2 0 13 E 1 04 .7 5 1 1 3. 50 3 .7 5
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Deutsche Bank
As the 3Q 2012 ended, this week in "The Shale Revolution & The US Dollar"
section, we look at revolutionary of shale assets on the US energy and trade
balance. In crude oil as well as US Natural gas section, we revisit fundamentals
and give our revised price estimates. In addition, we discuss the three
benchmarks oil prices under section “WTI vs. Brent vs. Dubai”.


Crude Oil: We do not believe the shale oil revolution in the US will trigger a
significant price correction as occurred in the US natural gas market. Rather,
we expect the immediate effect will be to sustain the discount of WTI to other
major regional benchmarks.

US Natural Gas: The downgrades to US economic growth introduce a new
headwind for prices heading into next year. While supply is being rationalized,
we still expect US domestic gas production to rise in 2013.

This note is an e xcerpt from the Deutsche Bank Commodities Quarterly. For
further details and the commodities publication from the DB Commodity Team,
please see: https://http://wendang.chazidian.com/global_markets/pages/commodities/research.html