外文报告：Deutsche Bank-Minmetals Land Limited - A narrower valuation discounts-121011

Deutsche Bank
Markets Research
Asia
China
Strategy


Periodical
Made in China

Date
11 October 2012

Minmetals Land Limited- A narrower
valuation discounts

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced
from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject
companies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus,
investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND
ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.

Jun Ma, Ph.D
Chief Economist
(+852) 2203 8308
jun.ma@http://wendang.chazidian.com

Lin Li, Ph.D
Strategist
(+852) 2203 6187
lin.li@http://wendang.chazidian.com


Michael Tong, CFA
Research Analyst
(+852) 2203 6167
michael.tong@http://wendang.chazidian.com


Daily Market Statistics 10/10/2012
Performance Price 1D% chg 1M% chg
HSI 20,920 -0.1 5.2
H-share 10,041 0.7 6.4
A300 2,324 0.2 -0.1
Volume Price 1D% chg 1M% chg
HSI 1,237 -24.7 -158.6
H-share 1,465 -31.0 -142.3
A300 4,269 -23.1 -53.0
Indexes 05/10/2012
HSI CY2011 CY2012 CY2013
EPSg 2.9% 6.4% 7.6%
PER 11.8 11.1 10.3
PBR 1.5 1.4 1.3
HSCEI CY2011 CY2012 CY2013
EPSg 15.3% 1.3% 8.3%
PER 8.4 8.3 7.6
PBR 1.4 1.3 1.1
MSCI HK CY2011 CY2012 CY2013
EPSg 1.3% -3.5% 7.2%
PER 12.7 15.6 14.5
PBR 1.1 1.3 1.2
MSCI China CY2011 CY2012 CY2013
EPSg 8.3% 0.0% 9.8%
PER 9.8 9.8 9.0
PBR 1.6 1.5 1.3
Data for 2011 are calculated using members, weights and prices fro
the 31st of December of that year
DB Economic forecasts
Hong Kong 2011F 2012F 2013F
GDP (%) 5.0 1.5 2.8
Merch. Exp. (%) 11.2 3.3 8.5
CPI (%) 5.3 4.9 2.3
China 2011F 2012F 2013F
GDP (%) 9.2 7.6 8.2
Merch. Exp. (%) 20.3 10.0 14.0
CPI (%) 5.4 2.8 3.5
FX rate (eop) CNY/USD 6.30 6.23 6.00
Source: Deutsche Bank AG estimates

DB EQUITY RESEARCH
Minmetals Land Limited - Turnaround in operations should narrow valuation
discounts (0230.HK, Buy, Target Price: HKD 2.00, Closing Price: HKD 0.94,
Tony Tsang)
In the past 12 months, Minmetals’ share price has lagged its state-owned
peers’ and the sector average, due to its slower sales and expansion pace
since 2011 – the result of an unexpected hold-up in its Vanke JV near Beijing.
That has now been resolved, and with a subsequent gradual ramp-up in sales
and development, Minmetals’ asset turnover should accelerate during the rest
of 2012 and in 2013, which should help narrow its NAV and P/B discounts.
(Tony Tsang – 852 2203 6256)
http://wendang.chazidian.com/p/520-02EA/49955927/0900b8c085d1b44a.pdf.
China nonferrous - Notes from the road - visiting Zhaojin, Chalco and others
(Laura Zhai)
During the last week of September we visited a number of companies in
Shandong and Beijing, including Zhaojin, Chalco's Shandong plant, Weichai
Power, a private FeNi producer and Minmetals Group's copper department.
General sentiment for industrial metal prices remains bearish and most are
expecting a slow recovery into 2H13. We therefore continue to prefer gold
over other industrial metals given the uncertainties in the Chinese economy.
(Laura Zhai – 852 2203 5929)
http://wendang.chazidian.com/p/399-4D60/50716207/0900b8c085d2a2e9.pdf

China/HK Consumer - October Golden Week or Weak? (Anne Ling)
2012’s Golden Week (30 September-7 October) is an important event for
China/HK retailers in testing consumer sentiment and hopefully providing
insight for 4Q12 and 2013 budgeting. We see potential earnings downside risk
for 4Q12 and 2013 for the discretionaries should SSS growth remain sluggish
with operating deleverage. While we are in a cyclical downturn, we remain
positive on consumer secular trend. We recommend a balanced portfolio with
top picks being Hengan, Belle, Focus Media and Tingyi. (Anne Ling – 852 2203
6177)
http://wendang.chazidian.com/p/567-9FC9/49835249/0900b8c085d17267.pdf