外文报告：BNP-LatamMacroSnapshot-130117

Market Economics 17 January 2013
Latam Macro Snapshot
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IMPORTANT NOTICE. Please refer to important disclosures found at the end of this report. http://wendang.chazidian.com

Chile: BCCh kept policy rate unchanged at 5.0% and issued little changed
statement

Chile’s central bank decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5.0% at today’s monetary
policy meeting. The decision stood in line with both our forecast and the consensus. January is
the 12
th
straight month of no changes to the policy rate after the monetary authority eased
25bp in January 2012.

Importantly, the neutral bias was kept unchanged, suggesting that no rate changes are likely
near term. This stands in line with our forecast that only pencils in the start of a gradual
tightening cycle later in the year.

On the domestic front, the central bank highlighted that “activity and demand indicators have
evolved in line with the base case scenario unveiled in the latest monetary policy report”. And
while the labour market continued to be characterized as tight, this time the monetary authority
went further and added that “employment growth had accelerated and that nominal wages had
kept a dynamic pace”.

On inflation, while both headline and core measures currently stand below 2% (the lower
bound of BCCh’s 2-4% tolerance range), the central bank expressed comfort by adding that
“inflation expectations at the relevant 2-year policy horizon remain aligned with the 3% official
target”.

Lastly, regarding the actively debated topic of the local currency, the monetary authority only
mentioned that “the CLP had appreciated slightly vs. the USD”. This comment — coupled with
the one included in the preview for the meeting stating that the peso’s trajectory had not
differed visibly from that of currencies in other commodity exporting countries in the region —
suggests that the monetary authority is in no rush to intervene to curb peso appreciation
pressure.

Lastly, on the external front, BCCh underscored that financial conditions are currently more
favourable than one month ago, even though risks in the Eurozone remain elevated and fiscal
concerns in the US — albeit having moderated — remain relevant. The central bank also
repeated that weak growth conditions in developed economies continued and this time
highlighted the more positive signals coming from China (in the previous statement BC Ch had
referred more broadly to emerging countries).





Please see below for details and disclaimers.

Florencia Vazquez
Tel.: 54 11 4875 4363
florencia.vazquez@http://wendang.chazidian.com