毕业论文正文

毕业设计（论文）

课 题 名 称 ： 充分竞争或意见购买

—来自信用评级机构变更的经验证据 学 院 ： 旭日工商管理学院

专 业 ： 会计系 姓 名 ： 李炳蔚 学 号 ： 100140113 指 导 教 师 ： 陈凌云

二 O一三 年十 一月 至 二

O一四年 五月

充分竞争或意见购买—来自信用评级机构变更的经验证据

摘要

信用评级机构是金融市场的重要组成部分，其评级结果对于投资者决策、政府监管和维持金融市场秩序有重要的作用。评级机构作为独立第三方，用简明的符号给出债券的安全性和盈利性，这使得没有足够专业知识的投资者易于投资，政府易于监管。从这个角度来看，评级机构的评级意见为利益相关者提供了决策所需要的信息。评级意见虽然是一种公共产品，但这份公共产品是由被评级对象而非信息使用者付费的，因此在信息的产生过程可能存在意见购买，即债券发行主体为了取得更好的评级意见对评级机构进行施压甚至更换评级机构。本文结合国内外学者关于信用评级机构监管现状和信用评级迁移影响因素的相关研究，以发生信用评级机构变更的债券作为研究样本，实证地检验了信用评级机构变更的可能原因。

本文以信用评级机构变更的企业债和公司债为对象，采用了描述性统计、t检验分析法和logistic回归分析法进行了实证。经过t检验发现：信用评级变更的债券和未变更的债券在信用级别迁移上存在显著差异。为了进一步证明评级机构与信用级别的相关性，本文采取了logistic回归分析法，选取了表示发行主体的盈利能力、偿债能力等财务指标作为控制变量，信用评级迁移作为被解释变量，评级机构作为解释变量，最终得出信用等级向上迁移和信用评级机构的变更是正相关的。结论表明，信用机构的变更是影响信用等级迁移的因素之一，并且这个因素相比其他因素来讲对信用等级迁移的影响较大。

我国的信用评级行业经过了20多年的发展，已经初步成熟，但还存在业内没有统一的评级标准、购买评级、恶性竞争等现象，还缺少细化的法律规范行业发展。次贷危机中所暴露出的问题也给我国还未成熟的评级业敲了警钟，评级行业更应尽快加强法律监管，规范行业制度，从而更好地促进评级业的发展。

关键词：评级机构变更评级监管 意见购买 评级向上迁移

Sufficient competition or opinion shopping--based on the

evidence of the change in the credit rating agencies

Abstract

Credit rating agency is an important part in the financial market. The rating result is helpful for investors, government regulators. As a third party, rating agency uses a concise symbol to evaluate the security of the bonds, which allows the investor who doesn’t have sufficient expertise easy to invest. This paper introduces the relevant economic theory of credit rating and the function of rating agencies.The paper

introducesthe thesis on the factors related to credit ratings inflation of domestic and foreign scholar,discuss and summarize the problems of the rating industry view, analyze the opinion shopping empirically as well.

Taking the corporate bonds which credit rating agency doesn’t change as an

object, the paper uses descriptive statistics, t-test analysis and logistic regression analysis.T-test analysis shows thatthe credit rating has significant differences in the credit rating agency changed and unchanged.To further prove that the relevance between the credit rating agencies and credit rating, the paper took a logistic

regression analysis.The paper selectssome financial indicators of profitability,

solvency and others as explanatory variable. It turns outcredit rating and the change credit rating agency is positive correlation. Compared with the financial position of the enterprise, credit rating agency has a greater impact on the credit rating.

With the 20 years’ development of our credit rating, the industry has begun to

mature .There isfew unified and accurate standard, some bad phenomenon such as vicious competition in the rating industry. There is few elaboration of the law to

regulate the development of the industry neither. The problems which exposed from the subprime crisis warn our country. Rating industry should strengthen legal

supervision and regulate industry systemas soon as possible.

Keywords：Credit rating agency, credit industrysupervision, shopping opinion, credit inflation

目录

1 绪论 ........................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 选题的背景和意义 .................................................................................................... 1

1.2 研究方法 ........................................................................................................................ 2

1.3 研究框架与主要内容 .................................................................................................. 2

2 文献综述 ................................................................................................................. 4

2.1 信用评级的基本概念 .................................................................................................... 4

2.2信用迁移的影响因素文献综述 ..................................................................................... 4

2.3 评级机构监管文献综述 ................................................................................................ 5

2.3.1政府引导促进良性竞争、构建合作交流的业内文化 .......................................... 5

2.3.2建立准入退出制度和法律追究责任机制 .............................................................. 5

2.3.3加强相关政府机构监管，完善信用体系和法律法规 .......................................... 6

2.3.4信用评级机构轮换机制 .......................................................................................... 6

3 我国信用评级行业的现状 ..................................................................................... 7

3.1评级市场总体存在的问题 ............................................................................................. 7

3.1.1业内环境不利于发展 .............................................................................................. 7

3.1.2 政府监管缺失 ......................................................................................................... 9

3.1.3收费模式存在缺陷 .................................................................................................. 9

3.2 意见购买 ...................................................................................................................... 10

3.2.1 意见购买概述 ....................................................................................................... 10

3.2.2产生意见购买原因 ................................................................................................ 10

3.2.3次贷危机视角下的意见购买 ................................................................................ 11

3.2.4 研究假设 ............................................................................................................... 12

4 研究设计与实证检验 ............................................................................................. 13

4.1 变量设计与模型建立 .................................................................................................. 13

4.1.1变量设计 ................................................................................................................ 13

4.1.2 模型建立 ............................................................................................................... 14

4.2 样本和数据来源 .......................................................................................................... 14

4.3描述性统计 ................................................................................................................... 14

4.4独立样本T检验统计 ................................................................................................... 16

4.5 评级向上迁移的影响因素回归分析 .......................................................................... 18

5 结论与建议 ........................................................................................................... 21

5.1 研究结论 ...................................................................................................................... 21

5.2 信用评级业建议 .......................................................................................................... 21

5.2.1 信用评级机构自律 ............................................................................................... 21

5.2.2 监管部门监督与管理 ........................................................................................... 22

5.3 研究局限性 .................................................................................................................. 23

参考文献...................................................................................................................... 24

致谢.............................................................................................................................. 26