外文报告：Deutsche Bank -The DB Daily Oily Rag-121102

Deutsche BankB-URALS Spread 0.64 -66% 1.94
Ref i ni ng Ma r gi ns La s t  QTD
East Coast 2-1-1 11.08 -20% 16.22
Midcon 3-2-1 29.81 -8% 36.78
Gulf Coast 3-2-1 24.39 -3% 32.00
Gulf Coast Complex 13.21 25% 19.55
California 5-3-2 13.62 -12% 24.18
PNW 5-3-1-1 20.63 0% 24.23
NW Europe Simple 2.83 -12% 5.10
NWE Margin Complex 6.95 -3% 9.66
Med Margin Complex 3.29 -37% 7.02
Singapore Simple 1.05 3% 1.91
Singapore Complex 6.07 -2% 7.54
For ex La s t  QTD
USD/EUR 1.29 -0.1% 1.30
USD/GBP 1.61 0.0% 1.61
USD/NOK 0.18 0.4% 0.18


Commodity Wrap
WTI crude oil price continued to move up yesterday following EIA inventory
reports which showed surprise decline in crude (-2mbbls vs. +1.8mbbls E) and
positive employment news (First time jobless claim for week ended Oct 27 was
363k vs. 370k, ADP Employment change for Oct was 158k vs. 131K). Nymex
was up $0.85/bbl to close at $87.09/bbl while ICE Brent continued to slip
$0.53/bbl settling at $108.17/bbl on expected return of North Sea Buzzard
oilfield. In oil products, RBOB gasoline remained at $2.63/gal while heating oil
lost 3USc/gal closing at $3.03/gal. US natural gas gained 1USc/mmbtu closing
at $3.70/mmbtu on lower than expected build in inventories (65bcf vs. 68bcf).
BG Group (Hold, TP 1,350p TP) – Utterly Bemused
With many of the negatives highlighted by BG as the reasons for its 2013
production cut already known and modelled we are at a loss as to why
guidance should now point towards flat production in 2013. By implication we
can but worry that there are other factors undermining the base business
which are as yet unknown. Absent greater clarity we consequently struggle to
feel confident enough in the outlook to promote the name at this time
irrespective of our positive views of Brazilian, Australian and LNG potential. On
much reduced earnings we cut the PT to 1350p (was1700p), the stance to hold
and await the Strategy Day for greater clarity on the forward outlook.
http://wendang.chazidian.com/p/45-A6EC/96875211/0900b8c085ef9529.pdf
BP (Buy, 500p TP) - Tangguh set for 3.8mtpa expansion at cost of up to $12bn
BP has been granted approval in principal by the Indonesian Government to
add a third train at the BP-operated 7.6mtpa two train Tangguh liquefied
natural gas (LNG) project in in eastern Indonesia lining the project up for an
investment decision in 2014 and potentially enabling commissioning of the
new train by late 2018. In a quite startling illustration of how the costs of LNG
developments have accelerated the company has suggested that the total
investment in the 3.8mtpa expansion could be up to $12 billion or broadly
$3/bn per tonne and this despite the build representing an expansion on an
existing site. Under the terms of the plan, BP which with a 37.6% upstream
interest will operate the project, and its partners have agreed to sell and supply
40 per cent of the LNG output from Train 3 to Indonesia’s state electricity
company PT.PLN (Persero) for the Indonesian domestic market as well as
supply up to 8MW of power generated at the site to the local area.