Hans Rosling亚洲的兴起2

汉斯·罗斯林：全球公众健康专家：数据家

瑞典卡罗琳学院全球公共卫生教授，他提出发展中国家在医疗保健和富裕方面已离发达国家不远，许多发展中国家在医疗方面已接近西方发达国家。

可以说，用数据演讲是干燥乏味的，但他用广阔的社会及经济视野以及他独到的观察让数据在他的演讲中如同美妙的歌曲。通过他的演讲，趋势由模糊变清晰。他的演讲以数据为根据，通常是来自联合国的数据，然后辅以他亲自开发的数据可视化的软件。以动画的方式将变化与发展以移动的气泡和蜿蜒而流的曲线使全球趋势变得清晰明白，直观有时甚至充满嬉戏与幽默。在演讲中，罗斯林甚至用体育运动现场解说员所独具的灵牙利齿和敏锐把全球的变化呈现在观众面前。

他开发的免费软件，可以用于任何数据，是由谷歌２００７年３月购得。

罗斯林原来是医生，多年在非洲研究一种罕见寄生虫疾病并发现了病因：饥饿和没煮熟的木薯。他与人共同创办了无国界医生并就全球公共卫生编写了教科书，主张国际合作研究。他富有个性，多次与许多国家领导人辩论，其中包括卡斯特罗。

Hans Rosling: Asia's rise -- how and when亚洲的兴起――如何与何时

Once upon a time, at the age of 24, I was a student at St. John's Medical College in Bangalore. I was a guest student during one month of a public health course. 从前，我24歲時，我是班加羅爾聖約翰醫學院的學生。 当时我是为期一個月的交換生，所 研讀的是公共衛生的課程。 And that changed my mindset forever. The course was good, but it was not the course content in itself that changed the mindset. 而那次经历徹底改變了我的观念。 課程不错，但使我观念改變的原因不是因爲授課内容。 It was the brutal realization, the first

morning, that the Indian students were better than me. (Laughter)

而是第一次上课无情的现实让我我了解到印度學生竟然比我還好 （笑聲） You see, I was a study nerd. I loved statistics from a young age. And I

studied very much in Sweden. I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I

attended. But in St. John's, I was in the lower quarter. 以前的我是個书呆子。 從小就喜歡統計學 。我在瑞典時也很用功。 在班上我一直是前几名 。但是在聖約翰學院，成了倒数的幾名And the fact was that Indian students studied harder than we did in Sweden. They read the textbook twice, or three times or four times. In Sweden we read it once and then we went partying. (Laugher)

事实是印度學生比瑞典的學生還要用功。 他們把教科書都唸兩遍，三遍甚至四遍。 在瑞典，我們唸完一遍就去参加聚会去了。 （笑聲）

And that, to me, that personal

experience was the first time in my life that the mindset I grew up with was changed對我而言。 這次的个人经历是我人生中第一次，使我固有的心態被徹底改變。And I realized that perhaps the Western world will not continue to dominate the world forever. And I think

many of you have the same sort of personal experience. It's that realization of someone you meet that really made you change your ideas about the world我領悟到或許西方无法永遠主导全世界。 我想你們大概都有過類似的經历。 那種遇到某些人卻使你完全改变对這個世界的观念。 It's not the statistics, although I tried to make it funny. 所讲述的内容不是统计学，可是我试图让它聼起來有趣。 And I will now, here, onstage, try to predict when that will happen -- that Asia will regain its dominant position as the leading part of the world, as it used to be, over thousands of years. 现在在这里我会试图預測什麽時候力量的对比会出现――亞洲会作为世界的领先地区重新奪回其優勢地位， 領導這个世界， 如同过去的数千年前那樣。And I will do that by trying to predict precisely at what year the average income per person in India, in China, will reach that of the

West我並會試著 準確地預測出 在哪一年 在印度與中國的個人平均所得 會趕上西方. And I don't mean the whole economy, because to grow an economy of India to the size of U.K. -- that's a piece of cake, with one billion people. 我不是指總體經濟而言 因爲要讓印度全國的經濟規模 成長到像英國那麽大 對有十億人口的印度而言是很容易的But I want to see when will the average pay, the money for each person, per month, in India and China, when will that have reached that of U.K. and the United States? 我想看的是個人平均所得，在中国和在印度每一个人，每一个月的收入何時會达到英美的水平？

But I will start with a historical background. And you can see my map if I get it up here. No? I would start at 1858我先介紹一些歷史背景 我把它掛上來的話你們可以看到我的圖吧？ 我從1858年開始. 1858 was a year of great technological advancement in the West. That was the year when Queen Victoria