外文报告：Deutsche Bank-No recovery in property sales-121009

Deutsche Bank
Markets Research
Asia
China
Strategy


Periodical
Made in China

Date
9 October 2012

No recovery in property sales


________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced
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companies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus,
investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND
ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.

Jun Ma, Ph.D
Chief Economist
(+852) 2203 8308
jun.ma@http://wendang.chazidian.com

Lin Li, Ph.D
Strategist
(+852) 2203 6187
lin.li@http://wendang.chazidian.com


Michael Tong, CFA
Research Analyst
(+852) 2203 6167
michael.tong@http://wendang.chazidian.com


Daily Market Statistics 08/10/2012
Performance Price 1D% chg 1M% chg
HSI 20,825 -0.9 4.9
H-share 9,840 -1.3 4.2
A300 2,270 -1.0 -2.1
Volume Price 1D% chg 1M% chg
HSI 1,350 4.4 -144.7
H-share 1,511 -5.3 -123.1
A300 3,553 -62.9 -166.0
Indexes 05/10/2012
HSI CY2011 CY2012 CY2013
EPSg 2.9% 6.4% 7.6%
PER 11.8 11.1 10.3
PBR 1.5 1.4 1.3
HSCEI CY2011 CY2012 CY2013
EPSg 15.3% 1.3% 8.3%
PER 8.4 8.3 7.6
PBR 1.4 1.3 1.1
MSCI HK CY2011 CY2012 CY2013
EPSg 1.3% -3.5% 7.2%
PER 12.7 15.6 14.5
PBR 1.1 1.3 1.2
MSCI China CY2011 CY2012 CY2013
EPSg 8.3% 0.0% 9.8%
PER 9.8 9.8 9.0
PBR 1.6 1.5 1.3
Data for 2011 are calculated using members, weights and prices fro
the 31st of December of that year
DB Economic forecasts
Hong Kong 2011F 2012F 2013F
GDP (%) 5.0 1.5 2.8
Merch. Exp. (%) 11.2 3.3 8.5
CPI (%) 5.3 4.9 2.3
China 2011F 2012F 2013F
GDP (%) 9.2 7.6 8.2
Merch. Exp. (%) 20.3 10.0 14.0
CPI (%) 5.4 2.8 3.5
FX rate (eop) CNY/USD 6.30 6.23 6.00
Source: Deutsche Bank AG estimates

KEY POINTS
 Mabel's Kitchen - China Consumer Staples Weekly - Oct Golden Week sales
were weak (Mabel Wong)
 China Healthcare - China Edge P93: August hospital data remain robust (Jack
Hu)
 Property - Golden week contracted sales down sharply week-on-week (Tony
Tsang)

THEME OF THE DAY

China Prop Weekly Monitor - No recovery in sales after a slower-than-expected
September (Tony Tsang)
Total volume in 40 major cities for 2012 Golden Week (1 Oct - 7 Oct) dropped
61.6% WoW to 2.67msqm, down from 6.95msqm recorded the week before
(Sep 24-30, where volume was up 26% WoW). Total volume for week 1-7 Oct
was up 7% YoY but down 51.4% MoM. 2012 Golden Week avg. daily volume
was 381ksqm, up 7% from 2011 Golden Week avg. daily volume of 355ksqm,
but down 55% from Sep 2012 avg. daily volume of 855ksqm. The large volume
drop was noted this week as it appeared that free toll-road access led to more
people going on holidays than those shopping around for a home. (Tony Tsang
– 852 2203 6256)
http://wendang.chazidian.com/p/525-4148/46136176/0900b8c085d1d30f.pdf

China Property - Taking a deeper look at property sales in Golden Week (Tony
Tsang)
According to initial data from Soufun, contracted sales (in sqm) in 19 key cities
showed a 9% YoY growth. However, compared with the week before Golden
Week (24-30 Sept, 2012), contracted sales were down by more than 70%
WoW. While we recognize that preliminary sales data is subject to further
revision, the rather muted condition of the property market is a reality now.
(Tony Tsang – 852 2203 6256)
http://wendang.chazidian.com/p/523-CD1C/45891445/0900b8c085ce3817.pdf

Property - Soufun 100-city home price up for fourth consecutive month (Tony
Tsang)
The China Index Academy, a research institute under Soufun, published a
report today saying that the average 100 cities’ home price it monitors
increased 0.17% MoM in September to RMB8,753psm, for the fourth
consecutive month. (Tony Tsang – 852 2203 6256)
http://wendang.chazidian.com/p/512-D774/45805004/0900b8c085d1b817.pdf