China is booming, and its hunger for energy is insatiable.
上传者:黄志坚|上传时间:2015-05-04|密次下载
China is booming, and its hunger for energy is insatiable.
内容需要下载文档才能查看
China’sburningambition
The economic miracle that istransforming the world's mostpopulous nation is threatenedby energy shortages and risingpollution. It also risks plungingthe planet’s climate into chaos.Peter Aldhousreports.
hina is booming, and its hunger forenergy is insatiable. For its people,thedismal air quality across much of thecountry is a constant reminder of its
reliance on coal and other dirty fuels. WhenNaturevisited Beijing to meet the technocratsresponsible for China’s energy policy, the city was blanketed in acrid smog. After just afew days of stagnant weather, visibility in somedistricts had dropped to tens of metres. Flightswere delayed and the Beijing EnvironmentalProtection Agency advised people to stayindoors. You could almost taste the sulphur in the air.
Energy and its consequences for health andthe environment are high on the Chinesepolitical agenda. But the hard-headed approachof the country’s leaders should give us all pausefor thought. China’s energy policy will con-tinue to be based around coal, they say, so thequestion of whether this notoriously filthy fuel can ever be made ‘clean’ is central to thecountry’s development — and to the long-term stability of the global climate.
The most immediate problem for China isthat its economic growth is already outstrip-ping its energy supplies. In boomtowns fromShenzhen to Chengdu, electricity is now anunstable commodity. Last year, 24 of China’s31 provinces, municipalities and autonomousregions admitted that they lacked sufficientpower. In the summer, when drought curtails
©2005Nature PublishingGroup
hydropower and air conditioners surge intolife, blackouts have become commonplace.The nation’s coal mines are straining to meetthe demand, at a terrible human cost. Accord-ing to conservative official estimates, morethan 6,000 workers were killed in China’smines last year — making them the world’smost dangerous — and the death rate wasundiminished in the first half of 2005.
Most coal-related fatalities never make theheadlines, however. Many Chinese cities fail tomeet international — or even their own —standards for air quality, causing hundreds ofthousands of premature deaths each year.China’s increasing use of coal is also sendingCO2emissions skyrocketing, threatening aglobal climate disaster. “We understand thatcoal means not only energy, but also social andenvironmental impacts in the long term,” saysZhou Dadi, director-general of the EnergyResearch Institute in Beijing and a leadingadviser on energy strategy to China’s leaders.While Dadi and other senior energy plan-ners recognize these problems, their enthusi-asm for coal remains strong. The country’sleaders are determined that its economy willquadruple in size by 2020, which will requireat least a doubling of the energy supply. Coalwill bear most of the burden. “We have toincrease coal consumption,” says Guo Yuan, anenergy systems analyst at Dadi’s institute. “It’snot a good picture, but we have to do it.”
1152
LI JIANGSONG/IMAGINECHINA
内容需要下载文档才能查看
Global climate change doesn’t yet loomlarge in the thinking of China’s leaders, butinternational experts note with alarm that coalis the worst offender in terms of CO2emissions.“The global problem is climate. But for China,conventional pollution is the main problem,”says Li Zheng, who directs the Tsinghua-BPClean Energy Research and Education Centre,a collaboration between Beijing’s leading sci-entific university and the British energy firm.
Efficiency drive
China’s energy planners have realized thatimproving energy efficiency is the easiest way to promote economic growth whilecontrolling pollution. “China should work first on this,” says Dadi. Predictions thatassume ‘business-as-usual’ suggest that totalenergy demands will rise to the equivalent of 3.5 billion tonnes of coal per year by 2020. Butintroducing a suite of measures to improveefficiency could keep that below 3 billiontonnes, says Dadi. “Technically, it’s do-able.”
This new drive for efficiency stems in part
from a quietly influential initiative run by the San Francisco-based Energy Foundation.Bankrolled for a total of US$40 million since1999 by the Hewlett and Packard foundations,the China Sustainable Energy Program isworking with Chinese energy researchers toSasol about the possibility of building twoimprove efficiency and cut pollution. Prioritieslarge indirect liquefaction plants.
include new efficiency standards for buildings,appliances and vehicles, and promotingCrude substitute
renewable energy sources. Fuqiang Yang, whoNeither process is a model of efficiency, how-heads the Energy Foundation’s Beijing office,ever. Direct liquefaction is about 60% energy-points to recent successes such as the renew-efficient, indirect techniques around 45%. Butable energy law, plus fuel-efficiency standardsChina’s desire to seek alternative liquid fuels isand energy-efficient building codes adoptedso great that Minghua estimates that liquefac-by central and local governments.
tion technologies could be providing it withEnergy efficiency is an admirable goal, butmore than 50 million tonnes of fuel per year byChina’s appetite for growth and the leader-2020. “This is a personal estimate,” he stressesship’s desire to limit imports of foreign oil— but one that will be music to the ears ofmean it won’t be enough. So China is embra-China’s leaders. If Minghua is correct, coalcing technologies that, in the West, remain liquefaction could reduce China’s demand foron the fringes. Du Minghua, director of thecrude by 100 million tonnes per year, or aboutBeijing Research Institute of Coal Chemistry,one-third of its anticipated imports by 2020.sees coal as an energy panacea, able to meetCoal is also central to the thinking ofChina’s demands for electricity, liquid fuelsresearchers at the Tsinghua-BP centre. Zhengand gas. “Coal is the solution for all three,” heis focusing on a strategy called polygenerationexclaims, before launching into a presentationin which a single plant would convert coal intoon his institute’s work on coal gasification
syngas, then use it in gas turbines to generateand liquefaction. electricity and also convert it into liquid fuels2.Finding ways to reduce dependence on oil,Sulphur is removed as an integral part of gasi-critical for the transport sector, is the top pri-fication, cutting pollution. To demonstrate theority for Minghua’s institute. Young coals suchtechnology’s potential, Zheng and his col-as lignite can be converted straight to liquidleagues have conducted a ‘syngas city’ simula-fuels by heating them to 450 ?C with hydrogention for Zaozhuang in the eastern Shandongand a suitable catalyst, Minghua explains.
Province. Like many industrial centres in
1153
©2005Nature PublishingGroup
NEWS FEATURE
NATURE|Vol 435|30 June 2005
China’s flood season officiallystarted this month withdestructive floods in manyparts of the country. In the past20 years it has seen increasingsummer floods in the south anddrought in the north. The likelyculprit is air pollution and, asthis escalates with China’s rapidindustrial growth, it could alterweather across the region.The key player in China’sclimate woes is the blanket ofaerosol particles that hoverover Asia. China isn’t alone increating this pollution hazard.India is a major contributor tothe brown clouds of smog —mostly black carbon, organiccarbon and other aerosols suchas sulphates and nitrates —formed by wildfires and by
burning fossil fuels and biofuels. Black carbon, a sooty by-product of coal-burning,absorbs sunlight, resulting in a hotter atmosphere andcooler ground. Sooty particlesalso affect rainfall by seedingsmaller droplets andpreventing the formation oflarger droplets. This aids cloudformation, but reduces theamount of rain produced.To simulate the observedchanges in China’s rainfallpatterns in recent decades, ateam led by Surabi Menon ofthe NASA Goddard Institutefor Space Studies in New Yorkused a global climate modelthat factored in black-carbonemissions4. But althoughclimatologists generally agreethat aerosol pollution hasaltered China’s rainfall, theyremain cautious about itspotential regional impact.“We are dealing with
imperfect measurements andimperfect models,” says GeorgeCarmichael of the University ofIowa. Reliable measurements ofaerosol emissions are lacking,particularly for black carbon.And climate models are riddledwith uncertainties, for examplehow aerosols modify clouds.Even so, studies reveal asimilar picture elsewhere.
IMAGE
UNAVAILABLE FOR COPYRIGHT REASONS
Simulations by VeerabhadranRamanathan from the ScrippsInstitution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California, andcolleagues show that aerosolpollution caused changes overthe north Indian Ocean thatresulted in decreased monsoonrainfall and increased droughtin India5. Similarly, China’spollution could affect
surrounding oceans, alteringmonsoon rainfall across theregion, says Ramanathan.The next step is to reducesome of the uncertainties.Project Atmospheric BrownClouds, run by the UnitedNations Environment
Programme, began monitoringAsia’s smog earlier this year.And improvements in satellitemeasurements of aerosols,together with China’s plans toincrease emission monitoring,will help determine the extentand impact of the country’s airpollution.Carina Dennis
China, Zaozhuang faces a majorproblem: how
to continue growing when the only readilyavailable fuel is high-sulphur coal.
In the ‘syngas city’ model, the Zaozhuangauthorities would provide incentives to pro-mote polygeneration, which not only gener-ates electricity but also produces methanol forvehicle fuel and dimethyl ether for domesticcooking and heating. The simulation suggeststhat polygeneration could meet more than aquarter of Zaozhuang’s electricity needs by2020. It would also achieve drastic cuts insulphur dioxide emissions while reducing theneed to invest in expensive flue-gas desul-phurization technology at conventional powerplants3. Further reductions in air pollutants,such as ozone-forming compounds, wouldcome from the wider use of methanol anddimethyl ether.
Such simulations are the stock-in-trade ofenergy researchers worldwide. But in Chinathere may be a greater chance of their beingimplemented, given the authorities’ power toenforce their will. Preparations for the 2008Beijing Olympics are a case in point. Realizingthat the city’s appalling air quality coulddamage athletes’ health — and present a poorimage of China to the world — the city is nowengaged in a frantic clean-up, closing some200 heavily polluting factories, piping innatural gas, and introducing a clean ‘bus rapidtransit’ system. “The Olympics are a very big
1154
opportunity,” says Li Hao, who heads Earth-View, a Beijing-based environmental group.Zheng and his colleagues hope that growingofficial concerns about environmental healthwill also boost their proposal to build a poly-generation demonstration plant, costing some5 billion yuan (US$600 million), which wouldgenerate up to 400 megawatts of electricity andproduce as much as 400,000 tonnes of liquidfuel per year. “We got a very good responsefrom the government,” says Zheng.
Greenhouse city
But while polygeneration and other clean-coaltechnologies may help to scrub China’s filthyair, they won’t do much in the short term tolimit the nation’s growing greenhouse-gasemissions. According to Zheng’s simulation,total CO2emissions from power plants wouldbe higher for the syngas city than if Zaozhuangcontinues using conventional technologies3. In the long run, however, polygenerationcould provide a route to a more sustainablefuture, in which hydrogen is extracted fromsyngas and used to power fuel cells, while CO2is captured and sequestered. “But to get there,the investment will be huge,” warns Zheng. Given the costs involved, experts say thatChina’s interest in carbon sequestration willdepend largely on the willingness of Europe,North America and Japan to pay for it. Thosewho work in the energy industry are blunt
©2005Nature PublishingGroup
about China’s determination to strike a hardbargain. If the necessary cash isn’t forth-coming, they say, all deals are off.
China’s potential to single-handedly emitenough CO2to negate all other nations’ effortsto control their greenhouse-gas emissions couldplace its leaders in a strong negotiating posi-tion. “If it’s business as usual, then the planet isdead,” says David Moskowitz, director of theRegulatory Assistance Project, based in Gar-diner, Maine, who is advising Chinese officialson reforming the electricity-generation sector. That should provide food for thought forthe leaders of the G8 wealthy nations, whomeet in Scotland in July with global warmingon their agenda. China is a signatory to theKyoto Protocol on climate change, but as adeveloping country it doesn’t yet have an emis-sions reduction target. Whatever strategyworld leaders contrive to save the planet,China will sooner or later have to be broughton board. And that won’t come cheap.■
Peter Aldhous is Nature’s chief news andfeatures editor.
1. Williams, R. H. et al. Energy Sustain. Dev.7,103–129 (2003).2. Zheng, L. et al.Energy Sustain. Dev.7,57–62 (2003).3. Hongtao, Z. et al.Energy Sustain. Dev.7,63–78 (2003).4. Menon, S. et al.Science297,2250–2253 (2002).5. Ramanathan, V. et al. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA102,5326–5333 (2005).
For more on China’s environmental problemssee page 1179.
CHINA PHOTOS/GETTY IMAGES
Brown clouds cast a dark shadow
下载文档
热门试卷
- 2016年四川省内江市中考化学试卷
- 广西钦州市高新区2017届高三11月月考政治试卷
- 浙江省湖州市2016-2017学年高一上学期期中考试政治试卷
- 浙江省湖州市2016-2017学年高二上学期期中考试政治试卷
- 辽宁省铁岭市协作体2017届高三上学期第三次联考政治试卷
- 广西钦州市钦州港区2016-2017学年高二11月月考政治试卷
- 广西钦州市钦州港区2017届高三11月月考政治试卷
- 广西钦州市钦州港区2016-2017学年高一11月月考政治试卷
- 广西钦州市高新区2016-2017学年高二11月月考政治试卷
- 广西钦州市高新区2016-2017学年高一11月月考政治试卷
- 山东省滨州市三校2017届第一学期阶段测试初三英语试题
- 四川省成都七中2017届高三一诊模拟考试文科综合试卷
- 2017届普通高等学校招生全国统一考试模拟试题(附答案)
- 重庆市永川中学高2017级上期12月月考语文试题
- 江西宜春三中2017届高三第一学期第二次月考文科综合试题
- 内蒙古赤峰二中2017届高三上学期第三次月考英语试题
- 2017年六年级(上)数学期末考试卷
- 2017人教版小学英语三年级上期末笔试题
- 江苏省常州西藏民族中学2016-2017学年九年级思想品德第一学期第二次阶段测试试卷
- 重庆市九龙坡区七校2016-2017学年上期八年级素质测查(二)语文学科试题卷
- 江苏省无锡市钱桥中学2016年12月八年级语文阶段性测试卷
- 江苏省无锡市钱桥中学2016-2017学年七年级英语12月阶段检测试卷
- 山东省邹城市第八中学2016-2017学年八年级12月物理第4章试题(无答案)
- 【人教版】河北省2015-2016学年度九年级上期末语文试题卷(附答案)
- 四川省简阳市阳安中学2016年12月高二月考英语试卷
- 四川省成都龙泉中学高三上学期2016年12月月考试题文科综合能力测试
- 安徽省滁州中学2016—2017学年度第一学期12月月考高三英语试卷
- 山东省武城县第二中学2016.12高一年级上学期第二次月考历史试题(必修一第四、五单元)
- 福建省四地六校联考2016-2017学年上学期第三次月考高三化学试卷
- 甘肃省武威第二十三中学2016—2017学年度八年级第一学期12月月考生物试卷
网友关注
- 广东省佛山市均安镇星槎幼儿园工程可行性研究报告-广州中撰咨询
- 小学总务考核标准11
- 2010年海南省嘉积中学高二上学期第二次月考语文卷
- 母亲节所思
- 2016----2017年度小班名画欣赏
- 关于幼儿园转让协议
- 广东省深圳市西丽幼儿园分园装修工程可行性研究报告-广州中撰咨询
- 给父母的一封廉洁家书33
- 洋县理光复印土管局大门北:在园幼儿晨检午检记录表
- 学生服使用单位履行质量义务情况专项检查记录表(幼儿园)
- 幼儿不慎溺水应遵循的急救办法
- 广东省连州市星子镇中心幼儿园工程可行性研究报告-广州中撰咨询
- 六年级下册6《半截蜡烛》优质教案
- 陕西艺术幼儿园音乐活动教研心得(3.14)
- 给父母的一份廉洁家书
- 对“留守学生”教育问题思考
- 福建省小学示范图书馆评估标准
- 幼儿教育心得
- 寒假前安全教育讲稿
- 登鲁的故事
- 小古文诵读100篇[1]
- 教师专业成长计划
- 2017人教版七下语文一单元检测题
- 幼儿园班级消毒记录表
- 2011-2012学年吉林省长春外国语学校初二上学期第二次月考语文试卷答案
- 一年级下册语文测试八
- 留守儿童之家读书活动安排意见
- 洋县理光复印土管局大门北:幼儿园校安全工作日志
- 留守儿童家访记录6
- 端午节放假安全教育材料
网友关注视频
- 3.2 数学二年级下册第二单元 表内除法(一)整理和复习 李菲菲
- 【部编】人教版语文七年级下册《逢入京使》优质课教学视频+PPT课件+教案,安徽省
- 19 爱护鸟类_第一课时(二等奖)(桂美版二年级下册)_T502436
- 【部编】人教版语文七年级下册《过松源晨炊漆公店(其五)》优质课教学视频+PPT课件+教案,辽宁省
- 人教版历史八年级下册第一课《中华人民共和国成立》
- 苏教版二年级下册数学《认识东、南、西、北》
- 【部编】人教版语文七年级下册《泊秦淮》优质课教学视频+PPT课件+教案,辽宁省
- 冀教版小学数学二年级下册第二单元《余数和除数的关系》
- 第五单元 民族艺术的瑰宝_16. 形形色色的民族乐器_第一课时(岭南版六年级上册)_T1406126
- 人教版二年级下册数学
- 【部编】人教版语文七年级下册《过松源晨炊漆公店(其五)》优质课教学视频+PPT课件+教案,江苏省
- 苏科版数学七年级下册7.2《探索平行线的性质》
- 青岛版教材五年级下册第四单元(走进军营——方向与位置)用数对确定位置(一等奖)
- 沪教版牛津小学英语(深圳用) 四年级下册 Unit 8
- 二年级下册数学第二课
- 六年级英语下册上海牛津版教材讲解 U1单词
- 【部编】人教版语文七年级下册《泊秦淮》优质课教学视频+PPT课件+教案,广东省
- 沪教版牛津小学英语(深圳用) 五年级下册 Unit 12
- 苏科版数学 八年级下册 第八章第二节 可能性的大小
- 苏科版数学八年级下册9.2《中心对称和中心对称图形》
- 外研版英语三起5年级下册(14版)Module3 Unit2
- 【部编】人教版语文七年级下册《泊秦淮》优质课教学视频+PPT课件+教案,湖北省
- 冀教版小学数学二年级下册第二单元《有余数除法的简单应用》
- 【获奖】科粤版初三九年级化学下册第七章7.3浓稀的表示
- 苏科版八年级数学下册7.2《统计图的选用》
- 外研版八年级英语下学期 Module3
- 外研版英语三起6年级下册(14版)Module3 Unit2
- 沪教版牛津小学英语(深圳用) 五年级下册 Unit 10
- 二次函数求实际问题中的最值_第一课时(特等奖)(冀教版九年级下册)_T144339
- 第8课 对称剪纸_第一课时(二等奖)(沪书画版二年级上册)_T3784187
精品推荐
- 2016-2017学年高一语文人教版必修一+模块学业水平检测试题(含答案)
- 广西钦州市高新区2017届高三11月月考政治试卷
- 浙江省湖州市2016-2017学年高一上学期期中考试政治试卷
- 浙江省湖州市2016-2017学年高二上学期期中考试政治试卷
- 辽宁省铁岭市协作体2017届高三上学期第三次联考政治试卷
- 广西钦州市钦州港区2016-2017学年高二11月月考政治试卷
- 广西钦州市钦州港区2017届高三11月月考政治试卷
- 广西钦州市钦州港区2016-2017学年高一11月月考政治试卷
- 广西钦州市高新区2016-2017学年高二11月月考政治试卷
- 广西钦州市高新区2016-2017学年高一11月月考政治试卷
分类导航
- 互联网
- 电脑基础知识
- 计算机软件及应用
- 计算机硬件及网络
- 计算机应用/办公自动化
- .NET
- 数据结构与算法
- Java
- SEO
- C/C++资料
- linux/Unix相关
- 手机开发
- UML理论/建模
- 并行计算/云计算
- 嵌入式开发
- windows相关
- 软件工程
- 管理信息系统
- 开发文档
- 图形图像
- 网络与通信
- 网络信息安全
- 电子支付
- Labview
- matlab
- 网络资源
- Python
- Delphi/Perl
- 评测
- Flash/Flex
- CSS/Script
- 计算机原理
- PHP资料
- 数据挖掘与模式识别
- Web服务
- 数据库
- Visual Basic
- 电子商务
- 服务器
- 搜索引擎优化
- 存储
- 架构
- 行业软件
- 人工智能
- 计算机辅助设计
- 多媒体
- 软件测试
- 计算机硬件与维护
- 网站策划/UE
- 网页设计/UI
- 网吧管理