15年数模美赛D题一等奖论文

2015年国际数学建模美赛D题(可持续发展战略)一等奖论文

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37415

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A development dream of a poor country

Abstract

The premise of a sustainable development assessment system is a good understanding of the concept. The sustainable development in our eyes should have a good current development level, a coordinate inner structure and a bright prospect for development.

To describe the three factors, we use the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model as a base. This model use P to stands for the pressure human make, S stands for the nature’s state and R stands for people’s action in sustainable. Choose 30 index from the World Bank Data. Divide them into three parts( subsystem P,S,R), normalize them , and calculate their weight by entropy method and get the value of P,S,R. P,S,R’ s weight sum reflects the current development. The balance between P, S and R reflects the coordinate degree. The growth rate of the current development level reflects the prospect. So we set up the measurement indicators of sustainable development, balance, coordinate and growth. Based on this three indicators, we establish a capacity of sustainable development index (CSD). According to the value of CSD, we divide the index into 5 parts and set a 5 class sustainable development system. From this system, we conclude that the CSD of 44 countries in the UN list of the 48 Least Developed Countries are dangerous. Mauritania has the lowest CSD, and be classified as a very serious unsustainable country.

Then we choose Mauritania as a research object. We find the top worst index which contributes most to the Mauritania’s terrible rank and analyze the relationship between economy and ecology. The GDP and forest area has a negative correlation Then

according to the cooperative-game theory to find a best strategy which can make the ecology and economy develop together. Under the guidance of this strategy, we make our plan that we should focus on the development of new heavy industry, ecological agriculture and education. What the ICM can do is providing direct investment, attract indirect investment, sponsor technique and fund.

In order to evaluate the effect of our plan, we use grey prediction model to predict the future which based on the current development pattern. Then use the Markov - chain prediction method to predict the future which has taken our measures and the random emergency into consideration. Then compare CSD value of this two pattern. We can find that if we didn’t take measures, Mauritania will still be a very serious unsustainable country in 2035. If our plan is put into action, it will change into a Critical unsustainable country in 20 years.

Keywords :

Pressure-State-Response ; Entropy weight ; Cooperative-game theory Grey prediction model ; Markov - chain prediction method

2015年国际数学建模美赛D题(可持续发展战略)一等奖论文

1. INTRODUCTION

With the resource of earth is consuming in a fast speed, more and more people show the concern about the future of human society. Since 1960, there has been many experts study the sustainable development.

However most people’s research object is the whole world, a country or an area. Almost no one choose the 48 Least Developed Countries (LDC) in the UN list as study object. However, LDC as a country group share many same points. Their development path also has the connotation of law. This paper chooses these countries as research object aiming at finding the regular of their sustainable development path.

The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 gives an introduction of the research’s background and the meaning of this research. Section 3 describes our understanding of sustainable development in details and shows the establish process and principle of our assessment system then we estimate every country of LDC and get their capacity of sustainable development and rank them. Section 4 provides a plan of the country Mauritania which has the worst index in section 3. Section 5 demonstrates the rationality and availability of plan in section 4. Finally in section 6 we summarize the main conclusion of the present paper and discuss the strength and potential weakness.

Table 1 Notations

CL Current development level CD Coordinate degree GR Growth rate of current development level CSD Capacity of sustainable development SD grade The grade of CSD

The notation here appears frequently in this paper. There are many other notations just appear once and they will be described when it is used.

2. BACKGROUND

Resources on the earth is limited. The three major sources of energy petroleum, natural gas and coal are not renewable. How to avoid the development of human stopped by resource depletion and fulfill the sustainable development aim is a hot topic now. In the past two centuries, developed countries have gone the road,

pollute first, then control and reached to a high level of sustainable development. Developing countries want to develop and be rich. However, because of their weak technique strength and low level of economic base, waste and poor efficiency development are normal in these country. So how to help developing countries especially the 48 Least Developed Countries in the UN list to realize the sustainable development is what this paper focuses on.

3. WHAT IS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT?

The understanding of sustainable development is the key to solve the problem. The definition of the sustainable development has experienced a long development process. Here, the Brundtland Commission’s brief definition of sustainable development as the “ability to make development sustainable—to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”[1] is surely the most widely accepted one within the various definitions. This definition has played an important role in many countries’ policy making process. However, in order to justify whether a country’s present situation is sustainable or

2015年国际数学建模美赛D题(可持续发展战略)一等奖论文

unsustainable, a more specific definition is needed.

To make the concept more specific, we deem that if a country’s development is a sustainable, it should have a basic current development level, a balanced country structure and a bright future. The basic development level reflects the country’s base and potential.

Whether the country’s structure (resource, agriculture, light industry, heavy industry and

service) is balanced reflects whether its development is healthy and we can be sure that an unbalanced development is dangerous.

The development is a dynamic process. So the future prediction can reflect this procedure. A

sustainable development is likely to have a bright future and an unsustainable development will experience many challenge in the future.

3.1 The Pressure-State-Response (PSR)[2] and current development level (CL) model

Different institutions have established different assessment system in the last few decades, such as Wellbeing Index (88 factors included) and Environmental Sustainability Index (68 factors included)[3]. These systems are giant and effective which is based on a huge quantity of data. Considering that our research subjects are the 48 Least Developed Countries (LDC), some factors have a lack of data support. What’s more, LDC need an individual, dynamic assessment system rather than a global, static one. Here we choose PSR (Pressure State Response) model to solve this problem.

PSR model was made by the organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) in cooperation with the United Nations Development Program (UNEP) in a proposed 80 at the end of twentieth Century for sustainable development and evaluation of resource utilization pattern[4].The model of PSR is widely applied to evaluate the utilization of resources and sustainable development, in which the pressure index P is used to characterize the result in unsustainable development of human economic activities of production and consumption patterns or economic system. State index S is used to characterize the system state in the

sustainable development process. R is used to characterize the response human countermeasures taken to promote the sustainable development. PSR model in accordance with the "cause - effect - reaction" thinking, interpretation of human activities to the natural world pressure, change the environment and resource state, and decision-making, behavior response through the process, promote the benign cycle of ecological system.

3.1.1Determine the evaluation index set

Combine PSR model with the Commission on Sustainable Development’s evaluating indicators. We choose 30 indicators of our own from the World Bank Data as the base of our model and divide these indicators into three part.

Pressure

Pressure (P) is a dynamic factor to influence the sustainable development of the whole system, reflects the influence of the traditional mode of development and economic and social activities caused on resources and environment, as well as the restriction of resources and environment on economic and social sustainable development. So here we choose Natural population growth rate, CO2 emissions, etc.

State

State (S) reflects the ecological background and foundation of development of, namely

2015年国际数学建模美赛D题(可持续发展战略)一等奖论文

resources, environmental capacity, industry foundation and social development. Here we choose GDP per capita, Population density, etc.

Response

Response (R) reflects the action of the government and residents taken to deal with the pressure of ecological environment and local development foundation. Here we choose GDP growth, Total natural resources rents and some other factors to .

x11 x 21

X

xm-1,1 xm1

x12x22xm-1,2xm,2

x1，n-1x2，n-1xm-1,n-1xm,n-1

x1n x2，n

(1) xm-1,n xm,n

Xijmeans the numerical value of Countryi, Indicatorj

i 1,2,3,4 m (2) j 1,2,3,4 n (3)

m 48 (4) n 30 (5)

3.1.2 Normalization and determine the weight of every indicator by entropy weight method

Because of the dimension, quantity, positive and negative orientation has difference of each index, it is not realistic using the data to calculate directly. What we need to do is making the data normalized.

Use the extremum standardization method to do with the raw data and make the dimension and quantity unified. After the treatment, the score of each index are located in (0, 1).

r12 r11

rr2221 R

rr m-1,1m-1,2 rm1rm,2

r1,n-1

r2,n-1rm-1,n-1rm,n-1

r1n r2,n

(6) rm-1,n

rm,n

Ifxijhas a positive effect on the sustainable development level, then the correspondingrijis

2015年国际数学建模美赛D题(可持续发展战略)一等奖论文

rij

xij-min xi1,xi2,...xin maxxi1,xi2,...xin-minxi1,xi2,...xin (7)

Ifxijhas a negative effect on the sustainable development level, then the correspondingrijis

rij

max xi1,xi2,...xin -xij

maxxi1,xi2,...xin-minxi1,xi2,...xin (8)

The entropy weight method is a common method to determine the index weight. Based on

"difference driven" principle, this method pays much attention on the local difference. It reflects the utility of information entropy and avoid artificial factors. So the weight given is more objective.

The proportion of indicatorjin countryi

yijij

x’ x’iji 1Entropy of information

e1m

j -lnm yijlnyij i 1

Redundancy rate

dj 1-ej The weight of indicatorj

wj

dj

m

d

j

i 1

(9)

(10) (11)

(12)